![]() ![]() In hindsight, it’s very easy to discern, among the many small and larger events, which ones do play a key role in shaping the future. ![]() The past seems linear, but the present is not!Ī key thing to understand is when we look at past events they seem to follow a linear logic. Ultimately, this leads to poor decision-making. Under the assumption of being able to predict the future, hindsight bias causes overconfidence in the individual, and they become less critical of their decisions as a consequence. This is why the hindsight bias is often called the “I knew it all along” phenomenon. Understanding hindsight biasīefore the event takes place, someone may predict an outcome with an educated guess – but there is no way of knowing for certain what will transpire.Īfter the event occurs, the same person may convince themselves they knew what was going to happen before it happened. Hindsight bias, therefore, is the tendency for an individual to convince themselves that they accurately predicted an event before it happened. The same can also be said for the avid sports fan who predicted the correct outcome of a match regardless of whether their team won or lost. The result of a presidential election, for example, seems more obvious when the winner is announced. Hindsight bias is the tendency for people to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |